Ever wish you had one of those magical crystal balls that would help you see deep into the future? Or perhaps, like in one of those fast-motion camera sequences, a video that could magically transport you across a long timeline in just a matter of seconds revealing just how things will unravel, say ten to fifteen years into the future? I feel you! I wish I did too. I don’t know what you’d use yours for, perhaps find yourself that elusive knight in shining armour, or buy the winning numbers to secure a tidy windfall in a lottery or betting scheme. I’d probably use mine to do a little more. Like to anticipate markets so that I could create me some generational wealth! OK, I’m indulging in some wishful thinking here, but you get the point! Except for a magical crystal ball, how else can you actually foresee where the markets are going; where the opportunities are to actually secure phenomenal capital growth in the property market?

One of the fundamental premises of investing in real estate, indeed investing in any asset class, is obviously the opportunity to secure capital gains– the appreciation of capital that often happens over the time an asset is held. Sure there are other goals for which investments are made, like the emotional security they provide. However, it is important to understand that all other goals for investing derive from the financial security they create.

Secure Phenomenal Capital Growth in the Property Market

For almost thirty years (between 1985 and 2014), capital gains on real estate and other investments in Kenya were untaxed. This gave investors the opportunity to create substantial wealth from investments in real estate and such other qualifying investments. The overall bullish market trend over that period of time in both urban centres and emerging towns allowed many investors to profit handsomely from their real estate investments; securing generational wealth that they could comfortably retire on and even pass on to their families.

So how exactly did they do it? Were they merely speculative in their approach, or possibly just lucky? For those that did it with great success, were the methods they used replicable?

Is Capital Growth Assured?

It is generally considered in this market that capital growth is assured if you hold an asset long enough. But is it sufficient to simply acquire property, even speculatively, because of this presumption? That same presumption has ensured that the “plot” culture in this country is firmly rooted. Like the social pressure that everyone the unmarried over 25 who must be familiar with, every gainfully-employed or otherwise productive individual in Kenya is at some point expected, by the standards and norms of this nation, to at the very least own a plot (or even plots); at the bare minimum, that spit of land commonly referred to as an eighth (a.k.a. 50 by 100). Otherwise, you are just good for being ridiculed.

Aware of this, land sellers have capitalized on pushing plots at exorbitant prices to herding, lazy investors. And they’re all in on the game; the cooperative SACCOs we all faithful save up with, property developers and even the wildly popular “chamas“.

Understandably, part of the vacant land culture is based on the valid, yet elusive dream of home ownership. But alas, the question is, how can you make phenomenal capital gains; not just good capital gains, but phenomenal gains?

Case Study: A Tale of Three Nairobi Suburbs

Sixteen years ago circa 2003, a friend offered to sell me a quarter acre of land in Kahawa Sukari, a suburb of Nairobi located in Kiambu County. Even though he was offering a substantial discount on the sale because he was a highly motivated seller, I passed on the opportunity because of some prejudicial thoughts I had at the time (my parents lived in the neighbourhood and I wasn’t inclined to live next door). The fair market value of the property at the time was actually KES 600,000. Today, that same parcel of land is selling at KES 12M. The market contrived to award those who made the investment with an X20+ growth.

Around the same time, a friend who was leaving the country to study abroad was faced with two investment prospects:

1. Buy a new flat in the swanky Milimani neighbourhood of Riara by depositing KES 2M and taking a mortgage of KES 3M payable over 15 years; or
2. Buy two 5-acre blocks of land at KES 1.8M in Syokimau, some nondescript place off Mombasa Road that was unknown at the time and then place the balance of her funds in some fixed deposit to earn interest or use the same balance to pay for the subdivision of the land into eighth-acre plots.

She made the seemingly less-popular of the two decisions electing to buy land in the “bundus”. Syokimau, a neighbourhood at the border between Nairobi and Machakos counties, was at the time just barren land with nothing notable to speak of on it. The property, as subdivided, would comfortably fetch a whopping KES 320M by 2019 market prices! That’s right. 320 million.

Comparing the three separate investors, these would have been the results:

In 2003, if you lived in Nairobi and wanted to live in a classy neighbourhood with all the cushy lifestyle trappings, Kahawa Sukari, would not have been on your radar. And certainly not Syokimau! They simply would not have made any apparent sense. None at all. Quite literally, Syokimau wasn’t even a neighbourhood at that time. Certainly not one on the minds of home buyers or property developers in the city. It was a desolate bush. Security would have been a concern. It was not the place to be. No roads. No shopping areas or malls. No schools. Nothing apparently progressive was happening yet.

Kahawa Sukari was just coming into its own. At least, it had some signs of development. It was rugged and coarse but there was some settlement. Between it and Syokimau (from a lifestyle perspective), Kahawa Sukari would have been preferable – several times over at least.

The Milimani suburbs on the other hand….now that was a happening place. New malls were sprouting (Prestige and The Junction had just come up around then). It had an extensive, well-maintained road network, all tarmacked. There were good schools, well-established homes. Hospitals within earshot. It was a mature neighbourhood even at the time. If you were looking for a superb address, there were already several here.

What takeaways can we then draw from this case study?

#1. The Safest “Investments” Aren’t Always the Most Lucrative

Of the three choices, while the decision to have acquired a flat in Kilimani may have made the most sense (especially to the “urbanites”) being that it carried the least risk, the result would have been the lowest capital gains (even if one could easily boast of owning property in one of Nairobi’s finest). And while the one that seemingly made the least sense and would have been viewed as the riskiest – Syokimau – was the only one that yielded incomparable gains, when pitted against the other two likely decisions.

Indeed, from this example, while the safest choices are “superficially” the most attractive; they are clearly the least financially attractive!

#2. Return on Investment Makes the World of Difference

A critical factor when comparing investment options is their trend of growth. It aids the investor to determine whether a neighbourhood is comparatively better to invest in than others. In this case, we will only compare the choice between Kahawa Sukari and Syokimau because they were relatively more comparable neighbourhoods at the time.

The sustained, annual growth for the period, while not markedly different (only 16%) produces a world of difference in the results. It is not applicable consistently over the initial years that an investment is held but can also be observed in the growth of development in the respective neighbourhoods. The annualized/compounded growth rate doesn’t follow a linear progression but instead follows a curved rate of growth.

#3. Diversification is Key To Managing Risk & Optimizing Results

Investors look to manage risk in such a way that maximizes returns. Another preferable approach may not necessarily be the maximization of returns but the optimization of results – diversifying investments to spread risk by seeking to secure the most optimal return on the full range of investment options available. Following this strategy, none of the three options above, taken exclusively on their own, is “the best”. The generally accepted rule for optimal returns is diversification which allows for aggregation of risk across investments with different rates of returns. Obviously, there is no way to know right at the point of investing which investments will perform well or poorly. The easiest way to explain this using the case study cited is as below:

This approach assumes that the investor has the capital or ability to invest in all the options available which would rarely be the case. Some investors also apply a weighted average method which puts higher volumes of capital to riskier classes of investments so that their average growth can be significantly higher. However, each individual investor has their own unique risk profile and it would be prudent to establish where your individual appetite for risk lies and match that to the specific investments you are willing to undertake.

In the case study, no investor lost money but their results were worlds apart. It cannot be discounted in the case study that some investors would be happy to merely own a home in an upmarket neighbourhood because of the security (low risk) it provides and will feel that an X4 growth is comfortable for them. It isn’t sufficient though. A good rule of thumb is to establish whether the rate of growth has allowed the investor to beat the cumulative growth in inflation over the period of time the investment has been held.

#4. Observing and Understanding the Market and Trends

The three neighbourhoods in the example above are fairly comparable. They’re all upper-middle-class neighbourhoods. All dominated by owner-occupied status (at least in 2003, Milimani was even though that seems to be changing now as more and more multi-dweller and commercial spaces are developed). They all had standards for controlled development. The trajectory of their growth is therefore bound to follow a similar path. For this reason, an investor could easily then observe similar markets and find opportunities in which the success of past investors is replicable.

While the growth is slow and only happens organically and is not always quickly discernible, investors with a keen eye will observe the trends and will see the opportunity portended in that growth. Over time, it is possible to discern patterns across different market segments, for instance between owner-occupied markets and renters markets; or between low-cost urban housing and upmarket housing. But it requires a disciplined level of commitment to follow the market and understand the trends through research.

#5. Create a Blueprint for Your Real Estate Investments

It’s OK to invest ad hoc. Investing works a lot better if you have an informed plan guiding your effort. There are ideas to be borrowed from the case study above. But it isn’t enough to attempt to replicate it.

These factors necessitate that investors’ map out their own investment blueprints with clear goals; an entry and exit plan. Gregarious strategies (herding) are great but they often fail because of a lack of congruence in individuals’ ideals, philosophy and expectations. Many of us plan around others in order to “keep up” or find acceptance in particular social circles. Maintaining focus on our goals is best achieved when they are documented and planned for so that even in the face of emotional turbulence and market uncertainty we don’t lose track. A blueprint is desirable in helping us identify our individual path to reaching our goals; achieving peace of mind and attaining financial freedom.

#6. Be Bold. Be an Outlier.

None but the brave deserve the fair. That may be an expression you’ve heard. It is nowhere more true that in the world of real estate investing. Conventional thinking will only get you so far. And calculated risk needn’t be overthought, just calculated. To get phenomenal, you’re going to have to make some bold moves and do some fringe thinking.

If you’re driven by the fear of missing out, you’re already going on convention and merely riding the crest of all the wrong emotions that should spur investment decisions. Discipline. Counsel. Research. These are the attitudes and practices of winners!

Property Scams cause untold financial distress and economic turmoil. The memories of the experience don’t leave quickly and can haunt their victims. I’ve been down that road, I know. In 2016, one such scam which purportedly gave investors the fast-track to homeownership decimated hundreds of millions in investors savings and credit. With no discernible repertoire of property developments, one would imagine that the scam would have been unearthed quickly, or that victims would have shied away. Yet, despite the alarm bells sounded against this property scam, would-be investors still piled in on an unprecedented scale. This fraud wasn’t just an indictment on the state of investor awareness and culture in this market, but also on market regulation, consumer protection mechanisms and investor education.

If we could remove the property scam artists out of the equation for just a second, just what renders seemingly rational individuals to become predisposed to the wiles of scammers? Is it a strong desire to achieve their goals? Is it their naivety or perhaps a misguided belief in overnight wealth and success? Is it their readiness to believe in get-rich-quick schemes or their failure to understand how things actually work? Who wouldn’t embrace the possibility of financial freedom if presented with an opportunity to get rich overnight, however incredulous? What if that opportunity required negligible effort, who wouldn’t that appeal to? Faced with the prospects offered by the property scam artist, do victims know what questions they should ask?

What Do Property Scams Look Like?

Property scams, like ghosts, assume whatever form imaginable by those who conjure them. If only scammers warned their pawns ahead of time, right? Whatever form they assume, they all tend to have a common feature – there is usually something unbelievable or untenable about them, a red flag or a series of red flags. Of course, the very reason victims get sucked into scammers’ orbit is that those qualities are quite magical, even hypnotic. These red flags, or bait, are what the scammer uses to lure victims. Like green snakes in the grass, they are particularly insidious because they are hidden in plain sight and unless one knows what to look for, they’re not likely to be attentive enough to see them.

Even more daunting is that as they run their course, property scams often morph and mutate, becoming increasingly complex and agile in their nature so that by the time the trap is sprung, the scammer has had sufficient time to conceal their intent, erase their footprint and potentially vanish into thin air – all while their unsuspecting victims still believe that all is well.

It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they’ve been fooled

Most scams go unreported because their victims invariably get embarrassed and don’t want to be shamed in public. Scams that attract the media spotlight usually only do so because of the creativity, flair and scale on which they are committed. Scams ordinarily present as legitimate market offers eventually mutating to fit in with their perpetrators’ goals so there is little in the way of preemptive measures to avoid them because they are invariably unearthed post-mortem. Scammers don’t operate with any deference to market regulation so it also unlikely that market protections would serve any purpose to preempt their perpetration.

Where Shall Help Come From?

So, if scammers are able to conceal their intent, and market protection mechanisms only kick in retroactively, is there a silver bullet or magic potion to inoculate would-be victims from the wiles of scammers who would happily steal their future in the property market? Sadly, there is neither one nor the other. However, you can get ahead of scammers by understanding how to identify the red flags around scams, the elements of your nature that they tend to exploit, and what those who conjure them into existence engineer into their traps.

Property Scams: The Scammers Guide

Have you ever observed a moth around a lit candle? If you have, you will understand, at least theoretically, how scams are built and pulled off. The candle emits a glow which offers warmth to the moth so that even the poor creature’s instincts are numbed to the allure of an open flame. In a near-cataleptic state, the moth begins to dance around the flame, repeatedly having his wings singed to the point where he loses the ability to fly. There is a lesson from the moth that needs to be learned. Bright, shiny things can bring death! Look away from the light! One would imagine that having been burnt once, or twice even, the darn thing would just flee the scene. But no. He keeps going in.

Hope Springs Eternal!

To different people the allure is different but it is invariably manifested in more money or prestige or by some other thing desired by the scammer’s victims – something for which you will give up all. Forget love, or sex, or drugs, this thing is much more potent! Once a scammer discovers that thing, he just needs to lie in wait.

Where Are Your Wits?

Of course, for you to realize that the game is afoot, you must keep your wits (instinct) about you. The moth loses his wings because the warmth from the candle renders him comatose, just as the investor loses his ability to analyze risk or make rational decisions immediately greed wins him over.

1. Be Skeptical. You won’t see the red flags if you’re not looking for them.
2. Market Savvy: You wouldn’t know what is unbelievable or unreasonable if you don’t know what is believable or reasonable. If something about what is being sold to you sounds unbelievable/ too-good-to-be-true (that light that’s about to clip your wings dear moth), test it, understand how it works, research, get professional help…do all you can to get to the truth before you jump in headlong and straight into the concrete.
3. Do the math. Does it add up?
4. Are you under pressure to sign up? You may want to step back and have another look.

In any market, investment opportunities that turn exceptional returns are classified “high-risk, high-return” ventures. The prospect of investing in such an opportunity should be met with a clear effort at analyzing and understanding risk, developing mitigation strategies and exit plans.

Property Scams: The Red Flags

Scammers will always incentivize their prospects with a variety of “good things”. Enticements may be couched in something that is seemingly free, or as a shortcut to achieving something desired –a panacea for all your troubles and ills. So what are the red flags?

#1. Shortcuts To Get You There Faster

You will be remiss to believe that investment processes can be circumvented. Perhaps there may be some more efficient ways to achieve tasks or goals but the process must be followed. Scammers use the promise of getting you there faster to lure you in. Who doesn’t want to get anywhere faster? Even better, who doesn’t want to get there faster than everyone else?

#2. So Easy To Do

Faced with a daunting task, we are inherently wired to take the lazy route and so the easiest way to get anyone to sign up for anything is to sell it as easy-to-do, easy-to-sign-up, no-work-required-on-your-part. Scammers know that we all want to get away with something for nothing if we can and they will use this against you!

#3. Secrets of the Rich & Famous

Ever seen the videos that offer to whisper the secrets of the rich and famous directly into your ear? The easiest way for a scammer to sear themselves into your heart and mind is to offer something highly desired but seemingly elusive. Most people won’t see through the promise except their belief in it.

#4. Get a Free Ride Here

If someone promised you a product that would deliver your dream of home ownership at zero-interest finance cost, in market conditions of a growing housing deficit and where the traditional lenders financing the same product at 15% were servicing fewer than 25000 customers, would you buy the product? There’s clearly an appeal (as pleasant perhaps as the warmth of an open flame to the moth) but does the product come across as tenable or even believable? This scam was pulled off successfully in our market fewer than two years ago. Even though there was no frame of reference to evaluate the opportunity, many of the victims were more willing to believe in the opportunity rather than in the incredulity of it.

#5. High-Pressure Sales Tactics

After a free lunch, you are more amenable to hear what your benefactor has to say. A quick, flashy presentation and thereafter all the stops are pulled out to get you to sign-up. Amazing offers (just for today). You will be cajoled, courted, prodded and every imaginable trick used to get you to sign on the dotted line. Representatives will be sent to smooth things over with you. Need a payment plan, there is one! The reason the property scam artists don’t want you mulling too long over the snake-oil they are peddling is that they know the voice of reason may prevail when you’re left to your thoughts.

#6. It’s All In-House

One clear sign that you’re about to swim down the river without a life-jacket is the promise that everything you need is under one roof. The allure is obviously the convenience that seems to come with the product you’re buying. For property scams, this may take the form of the scammer having in-house professionals rolled into the framework of the scam to include say property developers, legal and even financial experts. Because of the interests of the scammer and those of their pawns are at conflict, these experts are just a ruse. There is an unholy alliance here, one which will only rear its ugly head when the truth begins to out.

#7. We Do It, Even When We Don’t Do It

You need to ascertain the true nature of the business of anyone selling you a product in the property market. What would qualify a property seller, for instance, to guarantee you a return on an agribusiness venture? If you paused to think about it, none at all! You may realize that the property seller who includes greenhouses and the prospect of a return on the associated agri-business venture connected to the offer for land he is selling you, has just crafted an ingenious gimmick to move the property he is selling and has already priced the cost of the greenhouses into the cost of his product. This scam is still practiced in our market even today. But don’t take my word for it. Look for those who bought into these schemes and let them tell you their experiences.

#8. The Hysteria of the Masses:

Once a critical mass of people believes a scammer’s lie, it starts to breed as if by binary fission, like a single-celled creature infecting the market with its insidiousness. Think about this: If five people within your circle start to talk about five people within their respective circles doing something “life-changing” that’s trendy or new and has been presented as an amazing opportunity, aren’t you going to sit up and listen? The very human fear of missing out spurs interest so that soon enough, you’ll be the sixth person speaking to six other people who will do the same thing and before long the body of victims starts to pile on organically. The lie takes on a life of its own becoming an uncontrollable beast and sucking in more and more victims until the moment of truth arrives!

Property Scams: The Scammers Toolkit

#1. What Scammers Look Like

Property scam artists possess many intuitive qualities that situate them perfectly to exploit human capacity for greed. They are excellent at rapport-building and can make even strangers feel familiar and accepted. They are consummate actors, masters of detail, attentive listeners and often the most meticulous, well-researched individuals in the room. They endear themselves through an unrivaled understanding of the dreams and aspirations of their pawns, by displaying intense sensitivity and camaraderie. They can think on their feet, refining their plans on a whim all while building an aura of superiority and authority to consolidate the trust placed in them. They are well articulated, and both highly persuasive and deceptive in equal measure and apply any means necessary to propel their agenda.

# 2. Weaponizing Trust, Desperation, Greed and Ignorance

Property scam artists have the ability to weaponize human nature in furtherance of their goals. The right combination of trust, desperation, greed, ignorance and the fear of missing out is their hunting grounds because when we want to believe something to be true, we become susceptible to the suggestion that it can be. The desire to keep up with or outpace others in the race of life compounds the fear of missing out. The key to this recipe, however, is human capacity for greed!

#3. All Human Beings Are Good and Kind

We want to believe in the goodness and kindness of others because we may see ourselves that way and because doing good feels good. We falsely believe we can somehow spot malevolence and connivance in others.  These pseudo-beliefs build the scene for scammers to build our confidence. These beliefs are so strong that even presented with evidence or facts to the contrary, most victims’ default position will usually be that all is well.  We refuse to see what we don’t want to see, especially when it doesn’t fit well with the picture we’ve constructed in our minds. The rational thing we would ordinarily do before committing resources to investments is to objectively evaluate them and any alternative options. Blind trust and/or ignorance, greed and our desperation to believe in outrageous possibilities that a scammer may be peddling, even when questionable, often outstrip rational behaviour or response. So we abandon all investigation or the critical analysis that would help us see through the scammer’s deceit.

#4. Everyone is Fair Game

A scammer, well-versed in their “craft” understands that victims are easily found among individuals who have recently undergone some sort of profound change or experience. People who are vulnerable to scams are not necessarily desperate or ignorant (usually just greedy or well-meaning). Profound change can create instability whether positive or negative.  Hypothetically, an individual who just won millions in a lottery is just as susceptible (if not more) to being scammed as an individual who just lost his job. Both events, one seemingly positive and the other negative, create susceptibility that can be exploited.

Conclusion

Identifying scams isn’t a clear-cut task. But with a clearer idea of how they are presented, how property scam artists work, and importantly, the elements of human nature that make victims most susceptible to getting conned, you have the tools to avoid them. The heart may want what it wants and perhaps that’s why we have heads. Now you know. Don’t let them steal your dreams.